Адаптивное управление водными ресурсами в Центральной Азии: просто о сложном
Бота Шарипова a,b* , Наталья Чемаева c
a Казахстанско-Немецкий университет, ул. Пушкина, 111, Алматы, 050010, Казахстан
b Потсдамский институт климатических исследований, Телеграфенберг, 14473 Потсдам, Германия
c Научно-информационный центр, Межгосударственная комиссия по устойчивому развитию, Международный фонд спасения Арала (НИЦ МКУР МФСА), ул. Битарап, 15, Ашхабад, 744000, Туркменистан
* E-mail: b.sharipova@dku.kz
Nataliya Chemayeva e-mail: nomeni@gmail.com
https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2022-R1.v8-2/1-18.eng
Аннотация
Цель данной статьи – разбор различных точек зрения на концепциию адаптационного потенциала в управлении водными ресурсами, а также показать применение этой концепции в контексте Центральной Азии. Это кабинетное исследование основано на рекомендациях, полученных из научных исследований, программных документов и экспертных оценок совершенствования адаптивного управления водными ресурсами. Сопоставление и сравнение трех наборов рекомендаций показывает, что дальнейшее укрепление подхода ИУВР, а также в целом экспериментальный подход к управлению ресурсами, улучшенный доступ к знаниям о климате и механизмам снижения риска бедствий помогут укрепить адаптационный потенциал систем управления водными ресурсами в Центральной Азии. На данном этапе исследование было ограничено определенным набором избранных мнений и, для получения более четких рекомендаций, должно быть расширено в будущем. В качестве практического результата, представленный анализ был направлен на выявление лучших научно обоснованных подходов для планирования мер по адаптации в водном секторе, предназначенный для лиц, принимающих решения в государствах Центральной Азии. Таким образом, исследование можно считать одной ступенью в обсуждении адаптивных возможностей управления водными ресурсами в регионе Центральной Азии.
Available in English
Download the article (eng)Для цитирования: Шарипова Б., Чемаева Н. (2022). Адаптивное управление водными ресурсами в Центральной Азии: просто о сложном. Центральноазиатский журнал водных исследований, 8(2), 1–18. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2022-R1.v8-2/1-18.eng [In English]
Список литературы
Abdullaev, I. & Mollinga, P.P. (2010). The socio-technical aspects of water management: emerging trends at grassroots level in Uzbekistan. Water, 2(1), 85-100
Abdullaev, I. & Rakhmatullaev, S. (2014). Data management for integrated water resources management in Central Asia (available at: https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2014.097)
Adelphi & CAREC (2017). Rethinking Water in Central Asia: the costs of inaction and benefits of water cooperation (available at: https://www.adelphi.de/en/system/files/mediathek/bilder/Rethinking Water in Central Asia – adelphi carec ENG.pdf)
Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W. & Tompkins, E.J. (2005). Successful adaptations to climate change across scales. Global Environmental Change, 15, 77-86
AGWA (2020). Watering the NDCs: national climate planning for 2020 and beyond (available at: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e8397698c906c4df39838f5/t/5ec6d7cd9f34555fcdedb15f/1590089682847/Watering-the-NDCs-May-2020.pdf)
Agyenim, J.B. & Gupta, J. (2012). IWRM and developing countries: Implementation challenges in Ghana. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 47, 46-57
Akamani, K. (2016). Adaptive water governance: Integrating the human dimensions into water resource governance. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 158(1), 2-18
Alaerts, G. & Kaspersma, J. (2009). Progress and challenges in knowledge and capacity development. In Blokland, M., Alaerts, G., Kaspersma J. & Hare, M. (eds.) Capacity Development for Improved Water Management. Delft: UNESCO-IHE
Amponin, J.A. & Evans, J.W. (2016). ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper Series No. 44: Assessing the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions of ADB Developing Members. Mandaluyong City, Philippines
Barandun, M., Fiddes, J., Scherler, M., Mathys, T., Saks, T., Petrakov, D. & Hoelzle, M. (2020). The state and future of the cryosphere in Central Asia. Water Security, 11, 100072
Bernauer, T. & Siegfried, T. (2012). Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia. Journal of Peace Research, 49(1), 227-239
Biswas, A. (2008). Integrated water resources management: is it working? International Journal of Water Resources Development, 24(1), 5-22
Briscoe, J. & Ferranti, D.D. (1988). Water for rural communities: helping people help themselves. World Bank
Chaffin, B.C., Garmestani, A.S., Gosnell, H. & Craig, R.K. (2016). Institutional networks and adaptive water governance in the Klamath River Basin, USA. Environmental Science & Policy, 57, 112-121
Christmann, S. et al. (2009). Food security and climate change in Central Asia and the Caucasus. ICARDA
Dukhovny, V.A., Sokolov, V.I. & Ziganshina, D.R. (2013). Integrated Water Resources Management in Central Asia, as a way of survival in conditions of water scarcity. Quaternary International, 311, 181-188 (available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/J.QUAINT.2013.07.003)
Dukhovny, V.А. & Sokolov, V.I. (2005). Integrated water resources management. In Experience, and Lessons Learned from Central Asia-towards the 4th World Water Forum, Tashkent: Interstate Commission for Water Coordination in the Aral Sea Basin
FAO (2018). Policy analysis of nationally determined contributions (NDC) in Europe and Central Asia. Budapest, 84 pp. License: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO
Funke, N., Oelofse, S.H.H., Hattingh, J., Ashton, P.J. & Turton, A.R. (2007). IWRM in developing countries: Lessons from the Mhlatuze Catchment in South Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 32(15-18), 1237-1245
Gain, A.K., Rouillard, J.J. & Benson, D. (2013). Can integrated water resources management increase adaptive capacity to climate change adaptation? A critical review
Garande, T. & Dagg, S. (2005). Public participation and effective water governance at the local level: a case study from a small under-developed area in Chile. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 7(4), 417-431
Gerlitz, L., Vorogushyn, S. & Gafurov, A. (2020). Climate informed seasonal forecast of water availability in Central Asia: State-of-the-art and decision making context. Water Security, 10, 100061
Gupta, J., Pahl-Wostl, C. & Zondervan, R. (2013). ‘Glocal’ water governance: a multi-level challenge in the anthropocene. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 5(6), 573-580
Halbe, J., Pahl-Wostl, C., Sendzimir, J. & Adamowski, J. (2013). Towards adaptive and integrated management paradigms to meet the challenges of water governance. Water Science and Technology, 67(11), 2651-2660
Herrfahrdt-Pähle, E. (2013). Integrated and adaptive governance of water resources: the case of South Africa. Regional Environmental Change, 13(3), 551-561
Hill, M. (2012). Addressing water governance challenges in the Anthropocene in Climate change and water governance: Adaptive capacity in Chile and Switzerland (Vol. 54). Springer Science & Business Media
Hill, M. (2012). Climate change and water governance: Adaptive capacity in Chile and Switzerland (Vol. 54). Springer Science & Business Media
Hoelzle, M., Azisov, E., Barandun, M., Huss, M., Farinotti, D., Gafurov, A., … & Zemp, M. (2017). Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia. Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems, 6(2), 397-418
Horlemann, L. & Dombrowsky, I. (2012). Institutionalising IWRM in developing and transition countries: the case of Mongolia. Environmental Earth Sciences, 65(5), 1547-1559
Hurlbert, M., & Gupta, J. (2016). Adaptive governance, uncertainty, and risk: policy framing and responses to climate change, drought, and flood. Risk Analysis, 36(2), 339-356.
Observer Research Foundation, ORF (2020). How to prepare for unpredictable climate events to ensure water sustainability, December 23, 2020 (available at: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/how-prepare-unpredictable-climate-events-ensure-water-sustainability/)
Huitema, D., Mostert, E., Egas, W., Moellenkamp, S., Pahl-Wostl, C. & Yalcin, R. (2009). Adaptive water governance: assessing the institutional prescriptions of adaptive (co-) management from a governance perspective and defining a research agenda. Ecology and society, 14(1)
IPCC (2014). Climate Change 2014 (available at: https://archive.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/)
Janssen, M.A. & Ostrom, E. (2006). Empirically based, agent-based models. Ecology and society, 11(2)
Janssen, M.A. & Ostrom, E. (2006). Resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation: A cross-cutting theme of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change
Jiang, L., Bao, A., Guo, H. & Ndayisaba, F. (2017). Vegetation dynamics and responses to climate change and human activities in Central Asia. Science of the Total Environment, 599, 967-980
Krysanova, V., Dickens, C., Timmerman, J., Varela-Ortega, C., Schlüter, M., Roest, K., … & Kabat, P. (2010). Cross-comparison of climate change adaptation strategies across large river basins in Europe, Africa and Asia. Water Resources Management, 24(14), 4121-4160
Lemos, M.C. (2015). Usable climate knowledge for adaptive and co-managed water governance. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 12, 48-52
Li, Z., Chen, Y., Li, W., Deng, H. & Fang, G. (2015). Potential impacts of climate change on vegetation dynamics in Central Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120(24), 12345-12356
Lioubimtseva, E. & Henebry, G.M. (2009). Climate and environmental change in arid Central Asia: Impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations. Journal of Arid Environments, 73(11), 963-977
Lynn, J. (2020, November 25). Climate change webinar with IPCC experts [Webinar]. The Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia (available at: https://carececo.org/ en/main/news/vebinary-po-nauchnym-aspektam-izmeneniya-klimata-s-uchastiem-ekspertov-mgeik/)
Mannig, B., Müller, M., Starke, E., Merkenschlager, C., Mao, W., Zhi, X., … & Paeth, H. (2013). Dynamical downscaling of climate change in Central Asia. Global and planetary change, 110, 26-39
McSweeney, C., New, M., Lizcano, G. & Lu, X. (2010). The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries. Bulletin of the American Meteorological society, 91(2), 157-166
Menga, F. (2013). Power and Dams in Central Asia (available at:https://iris.unica.it/retrieve/handle/11584/266494/344893/PhD_Thesis-Menga.pdf)
Moss, R.H., Meehl, G.A., Lemos, M.C., Smith, J.B., Arnold, J.R., Arnott, J.C., … & Wilbanks, T.J. (2013). Hell and high water: practice-relevant adaptation science. Science, 342(6159), 696-698
Pahl-Wostl, C., Lebel, L., Knieper, C. & Nikitina, E. (2012). From applying panaceas to mastering complexity: toward adaptive water governance in river basins. Environmental Science & Policy, 23, 24-34
Parry, J.-E. & Terton, A. (2016). How are vulnerable countries adapting to climate change? The International Institute for Sustainable Development, IISD(available at:https://www.iisd.org/articles/adapting-to-climate-change
Reyer, C.P., Otto, I.M., Adams, S., Albrecht, T., Baarsch, F., Cartsburg, M., … & Stagl, J. (2017). Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development. Regional Environmental Change, 17(6), 1639-1650
Schlüter, M., Khasankhanova, G., Talskikh, V., Taryannikova, R., Agaltseva, N., Joldasova, I., … & Abdullayev, U. (2013). Enhancing resilience to water flow uncertainty by integrating environmental flows into water management in the Amudarya River, Central Asia. Global and planetary change, 110, 114-129
Sehring, J. (2009). Path Dependencies and Institutional Bricolage in Post-Soviet Water Governance. Water alternatives, 2(1)
Sehring, J., Ziganshina, D.R., Krasznai, M. & Stoffelen, T. (2019). International actors and initiatives for sustainable water management. In The Aral Sea Basin (pp. 155-175). Routledge
Sehring, J. (2020). Unequal distribution: Academic knowledge production on water governance in Central Asia. Water Security, 9, 100057
Sehring, J., Abdulloyev, A., Chemayeva, N., Ismailov, B., Osmonova, N. & Sharipova, B. (2021). Reforming legal frameworks for water management in Central Asia. In Elgar Encyclopedia of Environmental Law (pp. 354-366). Edward Elgar Publishing Limited
Siegfried, T., Bernauer, T., Guiennet, R., Sellars, S., Robertson, A.W., Mankin, J., … & Yakovlev, A. (2012). Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia? Climatic Change, 112(3), 881-899
Sommer, R., Glazirina, M., Yuldashev, T., Otarov, A., Ibraeva, M., Martynova, L., … & De Pauw, E. (2013). Impact of climate change on wheat productivity in Central Asia. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 178, 78-99
Sorg, A., Bolch, T., Stoffel, M., Solomina, O. & Beniston, M. (2012). Climate change impacts on glaciers and runoff in Tien Shan (Central Asia). Nature Climate Change, 2(10), 725-731
Timboe, I., Pharr, K. & Matthews, J.H. (2020). Watering the NDCs: National Climate Planning for 2020 – How water-aware climate policies can strengthen climate change mitigation & adaptation goals. Corvallis, Oregon: Alliance for Global Water Adaptation, AGWA (available at: https://www.wateringthendcs.org/)
Uhlendahl, T., Salian, P., Casarotto, C. & Doetsch, J. (2011). Good water governance and IWRM in Zambia: challenges and chances. Water Policy, 13(6), 845-862
Virji, H., Padgham, J. & Seipt, C. (2012). Capacity building to support knowledge systems for resilient development – approaches, actions, and needs. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 4(1), 115-121
Wegerich, K. (2008). Blueprints for water user associations’ accountability versus local reality: evidence from South Kazakhstan. Water International, 33(1), 43-54
Wegerich, K., Kazbekov, J., Lautze, J., Platonov, A. & Yakubov, M. (2012). From monocentric ideal to polycentric pragmatism in the Syr Darya: searching for second best approaches. International Journal of Sustainable Society, 4(1-2), 113-130
Woodhouse, P. & Muller, M. (2017). Water governance – An historical perspective on current debates. World Development, 92, 225-241
World Bank (1996). The World Bank Participation Sourcebook. Washington DC, 156-164
Zhang, M., Chen, Y., Shen, Y. & Li, B. (2019). Tracking climate change in Central Asia through temperature and precipitation extremes. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 29(1), 3-28
Zinzani, A. (2015). Irrigation management transfer and WUAs’ dynamics: evidence from the South-Kazakhstan Province. Environmental Earth Sciences, 73(2), 765-777
Zinzani, A. (2015). The Logics of Water Policies in Central Asia (Vol. 23). LIT Verlag Münster
Zinzani, A. (2016). Hydraulic bureaucracies and irrigation management transfer in Uzbekistan: The case of Samarkand Province. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 32(2), 232-246.
адаптационный потенциал, адаптивное управление водными ресурсами, изменение климата, Центральная Азия