Трансдисциплинарные подходы к проблеме деградации пастбищ в Казахстане: опыт скотоводов, столкнувшихся с дзудами и засухами

Aziza Baubekova ^*a, Aitbay Alimov ^b, Svetlana Kovalskaya ^c, Nicholas Middleton ^d

^a Water, Energy and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, Faculty of Technology, University of Oulu, Finland; aziza.baubekova@oulu.fi
^b NAO «Kazakh National Agrarian University», Almaty, Kazakhstan; aitbai.65@mail.ru
^c History of Kazakhstan, L.N. Gumilyov Eurasian National University, Astana, Kazakhstan; kovalskaya_si@enu.kz
^d St Anne’s College, University of Oxford, Oxford OX2 6HS, UK; nicholas.middleton@st-annes.ox.ac.uk

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2026-R1.v12-1/1-35.eng

*e-mail: aziza.baubekova@oulu.fi

Thematic cluster: Climate & Environment

Type of paper: Research paper

June 08, 2026

Abstract

The Anthropocene presents an era of polycrisis, where anthropogenic climate change and socio-political histories intertwine, disproportionately affecting marginalized communities. In Kazakhstan, extreme weather events such as dzud, harsh winter or summer conditions leading to mass livestock mortality, pose existential threats to pastoral livelihoods, yet remain understudied outside Mongolia. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme events, exacerbating the occurrence of both winter and summer dzud. Kazakhstan’s expansive grasslands have historically supported pastoral livelihoods, playing a crucial role in the nation’s economy and rural development. Livestock herding, deeply rooted in the nomadic traditions of the Kazakh people, continues to play a central role in cultural identity and subsistence. This research explores a transdisciplinary framework integrating indigenous knowledge from herders with remote sensing methodologies. It examines the complex interplay between dzud phenomena, land degradation, and socio-environmental stressors in Kazakhstan. The research begins by contextualising dzud through literature, archival sources, and herder perspectives. It integrates historic research and local narratives with remote sensing to develop a multiscale framework for assessing dzud severity. Particular attention is given to ice-on-snow events and drought-induced forage decline, which are key drivers of summer and winter dzud. Indexes were chosen based on survey data that provided insight into pastoralists’ views on climate change, pasture degradation, and adaptation strategies. National livestock statistics are analyzed alongside NDVI trends to evaluate the livestock dynamics and pasture conditions. Findings highlight the vulnerability of Kazakhstan’s rangelands, exacerbated by desertification, scarce water resources, an arid climate, and sparse vegetation. Social factors, including insecure land tenure, limited access to winter fodder, and inadequate subsidies, further constrain pastoral resilience. The study underscores the importance of valuing historical knowledge and ancestral adaptation strategies, which offer critical insights for sustainable land management and climate adaptation policies.

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Baubekova, A., Alimov, A., Kovalskaya, S., & Middleton, N. (2026). Transdisciplinary Approaches to Pasture Degradation in Kazakhstan: Herders’ Experiences with Dzuds and Droughts. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 12(1), 1–35. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2026-R1.v12-1/1-35.eng

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