Парадоксы адаптации к изменению климата в Центральной Азии

Вадим Япиев ^a , Зарина Саидалиева ^a,b , Нурлан Онгдас ^a,c

^a ЧУ «Национальная лаборатория Астана», Назарбаев Университет, пр. Кабанбай батыра, 53, Астана, Казахстан

^b Центрально-Азиатский региональный гляциологический центр под эгидой ЮНЕСКО, Алматы, 050010, Казахстан

^c Департамент науки, Назарбаев Университет, пр. Кабанбай батыра, 53, Астана, Казахстан

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2026-R1.v12-2/26-42.eng

*e-mail: vyapiyev@nu.edu.kz

Тематический кластер: Водное право; Климат и окружающая среда

Тип статьи: Научная статья

14 сентября 2026

Photo: AI

Аннотация

Центральная Азия широко признается одним из мировых «очагов» изменения климата, однако эффективной адаптации к изменению климата  препятствуют системные противоречия. Несмотря на высокую уязвимость региона к климатическим изменениям, он по-прежнему остается значительным научным «слепым пятном» в глобальных исследованиях их последствий. В данной работе мы рассматриваем доминирующие нарративы, являющиеся наиболее актуальными для адаптации к изменению климата, через призму «парадоксов адаптации» — ситуаций, в которых политика, дискурсы, интервенции или меры, направленные на снижение уязвимости или смягчение последствий изменения климата, непреднамеренно порождают новые риски или воспроизводят существующие структурные проблемы. Мы рассматриваем восемь взаимосвязанных парадоксов: география, водная безопасность, изменение климата, Аральское море, отступление ледников, обмен данными, «парашютная наука» и устойчивое развитие. Рассматривая эти парадоксы, мы утверждаем, что проблемы адаптации являются проявлением глубинных структурных противоречий, укорененных в истории, географии и климатических особенностях региона. В заключении мы предлагаем рассматривать Центральную Азию не только как регион, переживающий экологический кризис, но и как важнейшую лабораторию для понимания сложностей формирования устойчивости в условиях дефицита воды и политической фрагментации.

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Для цитирования:

Yapiyev, V., Saidaliyeva, Z., & Ongdas, N. (2026). The paradoxes of adaptation to climate change in Central Asia. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 12(2), 26–42. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2026-R1.v12-2/26-42.eng

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