Исчезновение высокогорных льдов как фактор гидрологических вызовов глобального и местного масштаба: обзор с примечаниями по Центральной Азии

Вилфрид Хеберли

Географический факультет Цюрихского университета, Швейцария

для корреспонденции: wilfried.haeberli@geo.uzh.ch

20 Декабря, 2019

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2019-R1.v5-2/51-72.rus

Аннотация

Ледники и зоны вечной мерзлоты остро реагируют на повышение температуры атмосферы.  Вследствие него среднеширотные ледяные высокогорные экосистемы, в том числе на территории горных хребтов Центральной Азии, претерпевают резкие изменения.  Продолжение этих изменений, по крайней мере, частично, следует рассматривать как неизбежное, а соответствующие последствия для водного цикла будут ощущаться далеко не одним поколением в будущем.  Основные гидрологические вызовы связаны с повышением уровня мирового океана (глобальный  масштаб), водоснабжением за счет речного стока (от континентального вплоть до регионального масштаба) и формированием новых озер с соответствующими возможностями в сферах гидроэнергетики, водного хозяйства и туризма, которые несут с собой риски, связанные с волновой нагрузкой и паводковыми волнами (от регионального вплоть до местного масштаба).  Международное научное сотрудничество, применение новых технологий ведения наблюдений и расширение возможностей моделирования в сочетании с комплексным системным анализом могут позволить сформировать информационную базу для коллективного (партисипативного) планирования, а также для поиска интегративных решений в рамках адаптационных стратегий.  Замедление глобального потепления благодаря сокращению выбросов парниковых газов поможет выиграть время для решения этой сложной задачи.  Настоящая статья основана на материалах одного из основных докладов на Международном симпозиуме по водным и земельным ресурсам в Центральной Азии (CAWa) в 2018 году.  В свете создания необходимой информационной базы в статье также делается обзор современной международной тематической литературы, включая по ряду аспектов, связанных с Центральной Азией.

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Для цитирования: Хеберли, В. (2019) ‘Исчезновение высокогорных льдов как фактор гидрологических вызовов глобального и местного масштаба : обзор с примечаниями по Центральной Азии’, Центральноазиатский журнал исследований водных ресурсов, 5(2), pp. 51–72. doi: 10.29258/CAJWR/2019-R1.v5-2/51-72.rus.

For ctation: Haeberli, W. (2019). Ischeznovenie vysokogornyh l’dov kak faktor gidrologicheskih vyzovov global’nogo i mestnogo masshtaba : obzor s primechanijami po Central’noj Azii [Vanishing high-mountain ice causing hydrological challenges at global to local scales: An overview with notes on Central Asia]. Central Asian Journal of Water Research5(2), pp. 51–72. doi: 10.29258/CAJWR/2019-R1.v5-2/51-72.rus.

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