Пути урегулирования водных споров: сравнение опыта Северо-Крымского канала и бассейна реки Кабул

Линетт де Силва ^a*, Джахан Таганова ^a, Джалал Насер Факирьяр ^a,b, Мира Джакшылыкова ^a,b,c, Уткир Адхамов ^a,b,c

^a Университет штата Орегон, 1500 Юго-Западная улица Джефферсона, Корваллис, Орегон 97331, США
^b Институт водного образования IHE Delft, улица Вествест, дом 7, Делфт, 2611 AX, Нидерланды
^c Университет мира, Эль-Родео-де-Мора, Сьюдад-Колон, 138‑6100 Сан-Хосе, Коста-Рика

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-1/123-146.eng

*e-mail: desilval@oregonstate.edu

Джахан Таганова: jahan.b.taganova@gmail.com; Джалал Насер Факирьяр: alalnaser.faqiryar@gmail.com; Мира Джакшылыкова: miradzaksylykova@gmail.com; Уткир Адхамов: utkiradkhamov@gmail.com

Тематический кластер: Водное право

Тип статьи: Научная статья

26 июня, 2025

Аннотация

Настоящее исследование ставило своей целью проанализировать потенциальные пути урегулирования конфликтов посредством сосредоточения внимания на водных отношениях между государствами, а также изучить соответствующие возможности на стыке управления водными ресурсами и политико-исторических споров на основе опыта: (1) Украины и России в отношении Северо-Крымского канала; и (2) Афганистана и Пакистана в отношении бассейна реки Кабул. Анализ данных двух практических примеров в плоскости предотвращения водных споров представляет интерес с точки зрения исследования развития водохозяйственных взаимодействий (споров, договоренностей и соглашений) между соответствующими суверенными государствами с момента их создания – Афганистана (1919 г.), Пакистана (1947 г.), а также Украины и России (1991 г.) – вплоть до 2022 г. Для целей исследования применялась Система взаимодействия по трансграничным водам (Transboundary Waters Interaction Nexus, TWIN), позволяющая анализировать историю становления водохозяйственных отношений, а также Концепция четырехэтапного урегулирования водных споров (англ. Four Stages of Water Conflict Transformation Framework) – для оценки межгосударственных отношений по состоянию на 2022 г. с точки зрения определения навыков сотрудничества для создания благоприятных условий для урегулирования водных споров. Результаты исследования показывают, что в то время как украинско-российские водные отношения можно охарактеризовать как «напряженные», а Афганистан и Пакистан находятся на стадии рефлексивных переговоров, территориальные споры и политико-экономическая ситуация в целом препятствуют сотрудничеству, несмотря на наличие механизмов и предпосылок (напр., нейтральное посредничество третьей стороны, общие экологические и экономические интересы, водная дипломатия, схожесть нормативно-правовых систем) для конструктивного разрешения ситуаций. Актуальность настоящего исследования заключается в расширении возможностей применения превентивных и трансформационных стратегий в политически чувствительных и геополитически нестабильных регионах, а также демонстрации того, что вода может выступать катализатором обеспечения баланса интересов и региональной безопасности.

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Для цитирования:

De Silva, L., Taganova, J., Faqiryar, J. N., Dzhakshylykova, M., Adkhamov, U. (2025). Pathways to water conflict transformation: Comparing North Crimea Canal and Kabul River Basin. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 11(1), 123–146. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-1/123-146.eng

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