Зависимость роста ели Шренка от климата и изменчивость осадков в высокогорных районах северного Тянь-Шаня

Булат Зубаиров

Казахстанско-немецкий университет, ул. Пушкина, 111, Алматы, 050010, Казахстан

* E-mail: zubairov@dku.kz

26 августа, 2022

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2022-R1.v8-2/31-45.eng.eng

Аннотация

В данной статье представлена новая древесно-кольцевая хронология ели Шренка (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.), полученая на основе образцов, собранных у верхней границы леса в северном Тянь-Шане (юго-восточная часть Казахстана). Корреляционный анализ с использованием дневных климатических данных показал, что осадки в период с 8 июля по 5 ноября каждого предшествующего года, являются основным фактором, ограничивающим рост дерева в каждом текущем году r = 0,648 (p<0,05). Полученная хронология была использована для реконструкции осадков в период с 1829 по 2016 гг. Реконструкция объясняет 41% дисперсии данных инструментальных наблюдений за количеством осадков за калибровочный период 1948-1987 гг. Реконструкция выявила шесть дат с экстремальными значениями (±2σ). Экстремально засушливые годы были отмечены в 1846, 1886 и 1912 гг., а экстремально влажные годы были отмечены в 1879, 1917 и 1920 годах. Как проявление экстремальных лет, так и вариация в увеличении/уменьшении количества осадков значительно изменились за последние 70 лет. Количество осадков увеличивалось в периоды 1829-1843, 1856-1869, 1880-1905, 1920-1935, 1946-1955 и 1978-1993 г. и уменьшалось в 1843-1856, 1869-1880, 1905-1920, 1935-1946, 1955-1978 гг. и 1993-2016 гг. Вейвлет анализ Морлета выявил наличие циклов ~2-4, ~5-7 и ~10-16 лет, что указывает на возможность связи изменчивости осадков в исследуемом районе с колебаниями в циркуляции определенных атмосферных индексов. Данное исследование дает новую информацию для понимания высокогорных экологических изменений в Северном Тянь-Шане.

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Для цитирования: Zubairov, B. (2022).Climate-growth relationships of Schrenk spruce and precipitation variability at the high-mountain areas of the northern Tien Shan. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 8(2), 31–45. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2022-R1.v8-2/31-45.eng

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