Climate-growth relationships of Schrenk spruce and precipitation variability at the high-mountain areas of the northern Tien Shan
Kazakh-German University, 111 Pushkin Str., Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan
This article presents a new tree-ring chronology of Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.) developed based on the samples collected at the upper tree limit of the northern Tien Shan (southeastern part of Kazakhstan). The correlation analysis with daily climate data revealed that precipitation in the period from the previous July 8th to November 5th is the main limiting factor of tree-growth r = 0.648 (p<0.05). The obtained chronology was used to reconstruct precipitation in the period from 1829 to 2016. The reconstruction explains 41% of the variance in instrumental precipitation records during the calibration period 1948-1987. The reconstruction revealed six extreme years (± 2σ). Extreme drought years were detected in 1846, 1886, and 1912, and extreme wet years were detected in 1879, 1917, and 1920. Both the occurrence of extreme years and variation of increase/decrease of the amount of precipitation changed significantly during the last 70 years. The amount of precipitation increased in the periods 1829-1843, 1856-1869, 1880-1905, 1920-1935, 1946-1955 and 1978-1993 and decreased in 1843-1856, 1869-1880, 1905-1920, 1935-1946, 1955-1978 and 1993-2016. The Morlet wavelet analysis revealed ~2-4, ~5-7, and ~10-16 year cycles, indicating a possibility to connect the precipitation variability in the study area with the oscillations of certain atmospheric circulation indices. The study provides new information for understanding high-mountain environmental changes in the northern Tien Shan.
Available in EnglishDownload the article (eng)
For citation: Zubairov, B. (2022).Climate-growth relationships of Schrenk spruce and precipitation variability at the high-mountain areas of the northern Tien Shan. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 8(2), 31–45. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2022-R1.v8-2/31-45.eng
Allan, R., Lindesay, J. & Parker, D. (1996). El Niño southern oscillation and climatic variability. CSIRO.
Borscheva, N.M. (1981). Vlijanie klimaticheskih fak¬torov na radial’nyi prirost drevesiny Eli Shrenka v Zailijskom Alatau [Influence of climatic factors on radial wood growth of Schrenk spruce in the Ile Alatau]. In R. Krinickaja (Ed.), Bioekologicheskiye issledovaniya v elovykh lesakh Tyan’-Shanya (pp. 159-167). Ilim, Frunze [in Russian].
Borscheva, N.M. (1983). Dendroklimaticheskij analiz radial’nogo prirosta Eli Shrenka v gorah sever¬nogo Tyan’-Shanya [Dendroclimatological analyses of the radial growth of Picea schrenkiana in the northern Tien Shan] [Doctoral dissertation abstract] Sverdlovsk [in Russian].
Büntgen, U., Tegel, W., Nicolussi, K., McCormick, M., Frank, D., Trouet, V., Kaplan, J. O., Herzig, F., Heussner, K.-U., Wanner, H., Luterbacher, J., & Esper, J. (2011). 2500 years of European climate variability and human susceptibility. Science, 331(6017), 578–582. https://doi.org/10.1126/ science.1197175
Chen, F., Mambetov, B., Maisupova, B., & Kelgenbayev, N. (2017). Drought variations in Almaty (Kazakhstan) since AD 1785 based on spruce tree rings. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 31(8), 2097-2105. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-016-1290-y.
Cook, E.R., & Peters, K. (1981). The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring width series for dendroclimatic studies. Tree-Ring Bulletin 41, 45-53.
Cook, E.R. (1985). A time series analysis approach to tree ring standardization [Unpublished doctoral dissertation thesis] the University of Arizona.
Cook, E.R., & Holmes, R.L. (1986). User’s manual for program ARSTAN. In R.L. Holmes, R.K. Adams, & H.C. Fritts (Eds.), Tree-ring chronologies of western North America: California, eastern Oregon and northern Great Basin with procedures used in the chronology development work including users manuals for computer programs COFECHA and ARSTAN (pp. 50-65). The University of Arizona.
Cook, E.R., & Kairiukstis, L.A. (1990). Methods of Dendrochronology: Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Cook, E. R., Anchukaitis, K. J., Buckley, B. M., D’Arrigo, R. D., Jacoby, G. C., & Wright, W. E. (2010). Asian monsoon failure and Megadrought during the last millennium. Science, 328(5977), 486–489. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1185188
D’Arrigo, R., Jacoby, G., Wilson, R., & Panagiotopoulos, F. (2005). A reconstructed Siberian High index since AD 1599 from Eurasian and North American tree rings. Geophysical Research Letters 32(5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2004gl022271
D’Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., Liepert, B., & Cherubini, P. (2008). On the ‘divergence problem’ in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes. Global and Planetary Change, 60(3-4), 289–305. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.004
Dulamsuren, C., Wommelsdorf, T., Zhao, F., Xue, Y., Zhumadilov, B. Z., Leuschner, C., & Hauck, M. (2013). Increased summer temperatures reduce the growth and regeneration of Larix sibirica in southern boreal forests of eastern Kazakhstan. Ecosystems, 16(8), 1536–1549. https://doi. org/10.1007/s10021-013-9700-1
Esper, J., Cook, E. R., & Schweingruber, F. H. (2002). Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science, 295(5563), 2250–2253. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1066208
Hu, Z., Zhang, C., Hu, Q., & Tian, H. (2014). Temperature changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 based on multiple datasets. Journal of Climate, 27(3), 1143–1167. https://doi.org/10.1175/ jcli-d-13-00064.1
Garcia, R. A., Cabeza, M., Rahbek, C., & Araújo, M. B. (2014). Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity. Science, 344(6183). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.124757944
Gerlitz, L., Vorogushyn, S., Apel, H., Gafurov, A., Unger-Shayesteh, K., & Merz, B. (2016). A statistically based seasonal precipitation forecast model with automatic predictor selection and its application to Central and South Asia. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 20(11), 4605–4623. https://doi. org/10.5194/hess-20-4605-2016
Holmes, R.L. (1983). Computer-assisted quality control in tree-ring dating and measurements. Tree-ring Bulletin 43, 69-78.
Jhun, J.-G., & Lee, E.-J. (2004). A New East asian winter monsoon index and associated characteristics of the Winter Monsoon. Journal of Climate, 17(4), 711–726. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520- 0442(2004)017<0711:aneawm>2.0.co;2
Menne, M. J., Durre, I., Vose, R. S., Gleason, B. E., & Houston, T. G. (2012). An overview of the global historical climatology network-daily database. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, 29(7), 897–910. https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-11-00103.1
Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group. (2015). Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nature Climate Change 5(5), 424-430. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ nclimate2563
Panyushkina, I. P., Meko, D. M., Macklin, M. G., Toonen, W. H., Mukhamаdiev, N. S., Konovalov, V. G., Ashikbaev, N. Z., & Sagitov, A. O. (2018). Runoff variations in Lake Balkhash Basin, Central Asia, 1779–2015, inferred from tree rings. Climate Dynamics, 51(7-8), 3161–3177. https://doi. org/10.1007/s00382-018-4072-z
Passmore, D.G., Harrison, S., Winchester, V., Rae, A., Severskiy, I., & Pimankina, N.V. (2004). Recent historic debris flows and valley floor development in the northern Zailiiskiy Alatau, Tien Shan Mountains, Kazakhstan. In H. Schröder, & I. Severskiy (Eds.), Water resources in the basin of the Ili River (Republic of Kazakhstan) (pp. 288-310). Mensch & Buch Verlag.
Schweingruber, F. H. (1996). Tree Rings and Environment: Dendroecology. Haupt.
Speer, J. H. (2010). Fundamentals of tree-ring research. The University of Arizona Press.
Telesca, L., Vicente-Serrano, S.M., & López-Moreno, J.I. (2013). Power spectral characteristics of drought indices in the Ebro river basin at different temporal scales. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 27(5), 1155-1170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-012-0651-4
Torrence, C., & Compo, G. P. (1998). A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79(1), 61–78. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0061:apgtwa >2.0.co;2
Usoltsev, V. A., Chen, B., Shobairi, S. O., Tsepordey, I. S., Chasovskikh, V. P., & Anees, S. A. (2020a). Patterns for populus spp.. stand biomass in gradients of winter temperature and precipitation of Eurasia. Forests, 11(9), 906. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11090906
Usoltsev, V. A., Lin, H., Shobairi, S. O., Tsepordey, I. S., & Ye, Z. (2020b). Are there differences in the reaction of the light-tolerant subgenus pinus spp.. biomass to climate change as compared to light-intolerant genus picea spp..? Plants, 9(10), 1255. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants9101255
Williams, M.W., & Konovalov, V.G. (2008). Central Asia temperature and precipitation data, 1879- 2003 [Data set]. USA National Snow and Ice Data Center.
Zhang, R., Shang, H., Yu, S., He, Q., Yuan, Y., Bolatov, K., & Mambetov, B. T. (2016). Tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction in southern Kazakhstan, reveals drought variability since A.D. 1770. International Journal of Climatology, 37(2), 741–750. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4736
Zhang, R., Wei, W., Shang, H., Yu, S., Gou, X., Qin, L., Bolatov, K., & Mambetov, B. T. (2019). A tree ring-based record of annual mass balance changes for the ts.tuyuksuyskiy glacier and its linkages to climate change in the Tianshan Mountains. Quaternary Science Reviews, 205, 10–21. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.11.028
Zubairov, B., Balanzategui, D., Heussner, K.-U., Heinrich, I., Lentschke, J., & Schröder, H. (2018a). Reconstruction of precipitation based on Schrenk Spruce Tree-Ring width in the Terskey Alatau, Kazakhstan. Berliner Geographische Arbeiten 121, 87-98.45
Zubairov, B., Heußner, K.-U., & Schröder, H. (2018b). Searching for the best correlation between climate and tree rings in the trans-ili alatau, Kazakhstan. Dendrobiology, 79, 119–130. https:// doi.org/10.12657/denbio.079.011
Zubairov, B., Lentschke, J., & Schröder, H. (2019). Dendroclimatology in Kazakhstan. Dendrochronologia, 56, 125602. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2019.05.006
Zubairov, B. (2020). Application of dendroclimatic methods in assessment of climate change impacts on the annual growth of Schrenk spruce in the Ile River basin, southeastern Kazakhstan [Doctoral dissertation] the Humboldt University of Berlin. https://doi.org/10.18452/21042