Influence of climate change on the ice regime of the Caspian Sea

Natalya Ivkina^1*, Zhanar Naurozbayeva¹, Bjørn Kløve²

¹Republican State-owned Enterprise “Kazhydromet”, Scientific-Research Center, Caspian Sea hydrometeorological research department, Republic of Kazakhstan

²Water Resources and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, Faculty of Technology, University of Oulu, Finland

*Corresponding author: ivkina60@gmail.com

October 30, 2017

Scientific Article

Abstract

Ice occurs in the Caspian Sea and its northern part influencing traffic, ports and the coastal region at large. Especially, heavy winds leading to massive ice jams considerably effect the socioeconomic use of the sea. In recent decades, the Caspian Sea is affected by reduced water inflow from the major rivers and changes in climate, but these changes are not well documented or known. To better understand ice conditions, winter regimes and climate change impact, this article analyzes the cold periods from 1980 to 2016, in the northern part of the Caspian Sea and connects ice conditions to climatic characteristics. Winters are classified using the P.I. Buharits in classification from sever to mild. The authors analysed changes in air temperature as of the main indicator of climate change, and a potential ice regime shift. The results show an annual warming of 1,1 0Cand 1,3 0Cfor the cold period since 1990. Winter severity, which is closely linked to ice thickness has clearly decreased since the cold winters in 1950’s and 1960’s. Milder winters have changed ice conditions in the northernmost part of the Caspian Sea. A detailed analysis of mild and cold winters show a clear difference in ice depth, with thickness about 58 cm and 20 cm, respectively.

References

1. Hydrometeorology and hydrochemistry of the seas, volume VI Caspian Sea, issue 1. Hydrometeorological conditions. – St. Petersburg: Gidrometeoizdat. – 1992. – 359 p.
2. Novikov V.I., Buharitsin P.I., 2009. Features of the ports and port facilities of the Astrakhan region in the conditions of winter navigation / Collection of scientific works “Problems and perspectives of modern science” (Issue 1), edited by prof. Ilyinskikh N.N. 13 p.
3. Assessment of ice conditions in the Kazakh part of the Caspian Sea (Manuscript) / Scientific report (executive in charge N.I. Ivkina). – Almaty. – 2012. – 375 p.
4. Ivkina N.I., Naurozbayeva Zh. K., 2015. Variation of the ice regime characteristics at the Kazakhstan part of the Caspian Sea by climate change // Hydrometeorology and Ecology. Num. 2, pp. 28-35.
5. Golubcov V.V., Petrova E.E., 2011. On the probable reduction of surface water resources of northern and central Kazakhstan under the influence of climate change// Hydrometeorology and Ecology, Num. 4, pp. 7-16.
6. Buharitsin P.I., 1986. Calculation and forecast of layered ice thickness in the navigable areas of north-western part of the Caspian Sea // Meteorology and Hydrology. Num.4, pp. 87-93.
7. Buharitsin P.I., 1984. Features of processes hummocking of ice cover the northern part of the Caspian Sea // Water Resources. Num. 6, pp. 115-123.
8. Ivkina N.I. (ed.), 2011. Catalogue of ice phenomena according to Kazakh observation posts. 59 p.