The paradoxes of adaptation to climate change in Central Asia

Vadim Yapiyev ^a , Zarina Saidaliyeva ^a,b , Nurlan Ongdas ^a,c

^a National Laboratory Astana, Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay batyr avenue, Astana, Kazakhstan

^b Central Asian Regional Glaciological Centre under the auspices of UNESCO, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan

^c Nazarbayev University Research Administration, Nazarbayev University, 53 Kabanbay batyr avenue, Astana, Kazakhstan

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2026-R1.v12-2/26-42.eng

Corresponding author e-mail: vyapiyev@nu.edu.kz

Thematic cluster: Climate & Environment

Type of paper: Opinion paper

September 14, 2026

Photo: AI

Abstract

Central Asia is widely recognized as a global ‘hotbed’ of climate change (CC), yet effective adaptation is hindered by systemic contradictions. Despite the region’s high vulnerability to CC it remains a significant scientific “blind spot” in global research on its impacts. In this paper we look at the dominant narratives highly relevant to climate change adaptions (CCA) though the lens of “adaptation paradoxes”— situations where policies, discourses, interventions, or measures intended designed to reduce vulnerability or mitigate the impacts of CC inadvertently generate new risks or reproduce existing structural problems. We examine eight interconnected paradoxes: geography, water security, climate change, the Aral Sea, glacier retreat, data sharing, parachute science, and sustainable development. By centering on these paradoxes, we argue that adaptation challenges are manifestations of deep structural contradictions embedded in the region’s history, geography, and climate. Ultimately, we propose that Central Asia must be viewed not only a region in environmental crisis but serves as a critical laboratory for understanding the complexities of building resilience in water-scarce, politically fragmented landscapes.

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Yapiyev, V., Saidaliyeva, Z., & Ongdas, N. (2026). The paradoxes of adaptation to climate change in Central Asia. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 12(2), 26–42. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2026-R1.v12-2/26-42.eng

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