Changes in atmospheric blocking recurrence and their influence on winter temperature regimes in Kazakhstan’s regions during 1960-2020

Kholoptsev A.V. ^a, Naurozbayeva Zh.K. ^b*

^a N.N. Zubov State Oceanographic Institute’, Sovetskaya st., 61, Sevastopol, 299011, Russia

^b JSC ‘Institute of Geography and Water Security, Seyfullin av., 458/1, Almaty, 050000 Kazakhstan

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-1/1-26.rus

Corresponding author e-mail*: naurozbaeva.zhanar@mail.ru

Kholoptsev A.V.: kholoptsev@mail.ru

January 13, 2025

Abstract

The study aimed to investigate the peculiarities of spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric blocking recurrence and corresponding temperature regime variations over the territory of Kazakhstan during winter months. As inputs, the research utilized the shifts in mean hourly values of atmospheric pressure (reduced to sea level) and geopotential to 850, 500 and 300 hPa isobaric surfaces for detecting atmospheric blockings; and the observation data from Kazhydromet meteorological stations as well as other archive and electronic sources – for assessing the influence of atmospheric blockings on the thermal regime in the target Kazakhstan’s regions. The study comprised designing a methodology for detecting atmospheric blockings synergizing the traditional procedures applied for the purpose and reducing the associated error probability. The research allowed not only analyzing the mean values of atmospheric blocking recurrence (duration of not less than 5-10 days) during 1960-2020, and the trends of its inter-annual dynamics at the time intervals corresponding to different phases of the current climatic cycle for different section of Kazakhstan’s territory, but likewise determining the climatic normals in terms of the frequency of such blockings occurring for the modern climatic cycle, as well as their alterations against the baseline climatic period (1961-1990). In addition, the study examined the impacts of the considered atmospheric blockings on the thermal regime – characteristic for winter months – across different regions of Kazakhstan; and identified specific regions demonstrating the greatest modifications in their thermal regimes that had occurred during the periods of the atmospheric blockings in question.

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Kholoptsev, A., Naurozbayeva, Zh. (2025). Izmeneniya povtoryaemosti atmosfernykh blokirovok nad regionami Kazakhstana v zimnie mesyatsy 1960–2020 gg. i ikh vliyanie na temperaturnye rezhimy [Changes in Atmospheric Blocking Recurrence and Their Influence on Winter Temperature Regimes in Kazakhstan’s Regions During 1960-2020]. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 11(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-1/1-26.rus (In Russian)

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