Assessment of atmospheric circulation impacts on the Caspian Sea level and ice regime

Naurozbayeva Zhanar a,b

a JSC «Institute of geography and water security», Pushkin st. 67/99, Almaty, 050010, Kazakhstan

b Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Al Farabi Av. 77, Almaty, 050040, Kazakhstan

E-mail: naurozbaeva.zhanar@mail.ru

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2024-R1.v10-1/68-90.rus

Abstract

The research aimed to assess the influence of atmospheric processes in the Northern Hemi-sphere’s Atlantic-European Sector on the Caspian Sea level based on the data for the days with Wangenheim-Girs atmospheric general circulation forms. The inputs covered the time period from 1900 to 2022. The information on the sea level, precipitation and ice events were harvested from 22 observation points in Kazakhstan and Russia. The statistical and comparative analysis as well as the climate change assessment within the framework of the study pointed to a stable correlation between the sea level and atmospheric circulation; re-vealed certain patterns reflected in precipitation distribution and frequency of moisture defi-cient and excessive years. The research also identified that the climatic changes have al-tered the sea’s ice regime, with the maximum ice thickness decreasing by 13-28 cm depend-ing on a specific water area. In addition to ice thickness variation, the recent decades show an increased frequency of moderate and mild winters, and the shift of the main glaciation dates, i.e. a stable ice cover forming later, the date of fixed maximum ice thickness observed in mid-February, the date of complete ice clearing observed in early-mid March, and the freezing period being shorter.

Available in Russian

Download the article (rus)

For citation: Naurozbayeva, Zh. (2024). Ocenka vozdejstvija atmosfernoj cirkuljacii na ledovyj rezhim i uroven’ Kaspijskogo morja [Assessment of atmospheric circulation impacts on the Caspian Sea level and ice regime]. Central Asian Journal of Water Research,  10(1), 68-90. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2024-R1.v10-1/68-90.rus (in Russian)

References

Abuzjarov Z.K., Nesterov E.S. Nekotorye osobennosti prostranstvenno-vremennoj izmenchivosti urovnja Kaspijskogo morja. [Some features of the spatio-temporal variability of the level of the Caspian Sea] // Trudy gidrometeorologicheskogo nauchno-issledovatel’skogo centra Rossijskoj Federacii. No 345. 2011. p. 5-22 (in Russian).

Bolgov M.V., Krasnozhon G.F., Ljubushin A.A. Kaspijskoe more jekstremal’nye gidrologicheskie sobytija. [Caspian Sea extreme hydrological events]. M.: Nauka, 2007. 381 p. (in Russian).

Buharicin P.I. Issledovanija Kaspijskih l’dov. [Exploration of the Caspian ice]. Palmarium Academic Publishing. 2019. 122 p. (in Russian).

Buharicin P.I., Boldyrev B.Ju., Novikov V.I. Kompleksnaja sistema gidrometeorologicheskogo obespechenija bezopasnosti moreplavanija, portov i transportnyh kompleksov na Kaspijskom more. [Integrated system of hydrometeorological safety of navigation, ports and transport complexes in the Caspian Sea]. Astrahan’, 2014. 319 p. (in Russian).

Vtoroj ocenochnyj doklad Rosgidrometa ob izmenenijah klimata i ih posledstvijah na territorii Rossijskoj Federacii. [The second assessment report of Roshydromet on climate change and its consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation]. M. Rosgidromet. 2014. 1009 p. (in Russian).

Vodnyj balans i kolebanija urovnja Kaspijskogo morja. Modelirovanie i prognoz. [Water balance and fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea. Modeling and forecast]. Pod red. Nesterova E.S. M.: Triada LTD, 2016. 378 p. (in Russian).

General’nyj katalog urovnja Kaspijskogo morja. Oficial’nyj sajt KASPKOM. – [General catalog of the level of the Caspian Sea. Official site of CASPCOM]. 2020. Rezhim dostupa, http://www.caspcom. com/index.php?razd=sess&lang=1&sess=17&podsess=61

Gidrometeorologija i gidrohimija morej [Hydrometeorology and hydrochemistry of the seas]. T.VI. Kaspijskoe more. Gidrometeorologicheskie uslovija. SPb.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1992. V. 1. 359 p. (in Russian).

Girs A.A. Mnogoletnie kolebanija atmosfernoj cirkuljacii i dolgosrochnye gidrometeorologicheskie prognozy. [Long-term fluctuations in atmospheric circulation and long-term hydrometeorological forecasts]. L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1971. P. 7-31. (in Russian).

Dumanskaja I.O. Ledovye uslovija morej Evropejskoj chasti Rossii. [Ice conditions of the seas of the European part of Russia]. M.: FGBU «Gidrometcentr Rossii», 2014. 608 p. (in Russian).

Zaks L. Statisticheskoe ocenivanie. [Statistical estimation]. M.: Statistika, 1976. 598 p. (in Russian).

Ivkina N.I., Terehov A.G., Naurozbaeva Zh.K. Kolebanija urovnja Kaspijskogo morja i diagnostika sovremennyh izmenenij polozhenija beregovoj linii po sputnikovym dannym landsat perioda 2005- 2015 godov [Fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea and diagnostics of modern changes in the position of the coastline according to satellite data from the landsat period 2005-2015]. // Gidrometeorologija i jekologija. 2015. No 2. p. 89-99. (in Russian).

Lobanov V.A., Smirnov I.A., Shadurskij A.E. Praktikum po klimatologii. Chast’ 1. [Workshop on climatology. Part 1]. Sankt-Peterburg, 2011. 144p. (in Russian).

Meshherskaja A.V., Golod M.P., Beljankina I.G. Kolebanija urovnja Kaspijskogo morja v svjazi s osobennostjami obshhej cirkuljacii atmosfery v XX veke. [Fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea due to the peculiarities of the general circulation of the atmosphere in the XX century]. Materialy special’noj sessii Uchenogo soveta Centra mezhdunarodnogo sotrudnichestva po problemam okruzhajushhej sredy, posvjashhennoj 80-letiju akademika M.I. Budyko. Sankt- Peterburg. Nauka, 2002. p. 180-194 (in Russian).

Naurozbaeva Zh.K., Lobanov V.A. Izmenenie vetrovogo rezhima severnogo i srednego Kaspija v holodnoe polugodie. [Changes in the wind regime of the northern and middle Caspian in the cold half-year]. // Ezhekvartal’nyj nauchno-tehnicheskij zhurnal «Gidrometeorologija i jekologija» 2020. No 4. p. 36-45. (in Russian)

Nesterov E.S. Severoatlanticheskoe kolebanie: atmosfera i okean. [North Atlantic Oscillation: Atmosphere and Ocean]. M.: TRIADA LDT, 2013. 144 p. (in Russian).

Nikonova R.E. O prichinah i posledstvijah mnogoletnih kolebanij urovnja Kaspijskogo morja v XX-XXI stoletijah [On the causes and consequences of long-term fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea in the XX-XXI centuries]. // Trudy GOIN. 2008. V. 211. p.127-151 (in Russian).

Nikonova R.E. O kolebanijah urovnja Kaspijskogo morja i sovremennoe sostojanie seti nabljudenij [On fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea and the current state of the observation network]. // Vestnik Kaspija. 2011. No 2. p. 72-81. (in Russian).

Ogorodov S.A., Arhipov V.V., Zemljanov I.V., Cvecinskij A.S. Vozdejstvie ledjanogo pokrova na dno severnogo Kaspija v uslovijah kolebanija urovnja i ledovitosti [The impact of the ice cover on the bottom of the northern Caspian under conditions of fluctuations in level and ice cover]. // Trudy gosudarstvennogo okeanograficheskogo instituta. No 215. 2014. p. 170-182. (in Russian).

Panin G.N., Vyruchalkina T.Ju., Solomonova I.V. Klimaticheskie izmenenija v Arktike, Severnoj Atlantike, rajone Kaspija i ih vzaimosvjaz’. [Climatic changes in the Arctic, North Atlantic, the Caspian region and their relationship]. // Fundamental’naja i prikladnaja klimatologija. 2015. T.1. p. 183-210. (in Russian).

Spravochno-analiticheskij obzor gidrologicheskogo rezhima ust’evyh oblastej rek Volgi, Tereka, Sulaka. [Reference and analytical review of the hydrological regime of the mouth areas of the Volga, Terek, Sulak rivers]. M.: FGBU «GOIN», 2016. 74 p. (in Russian).

Statisticheskie metody v gidrologii. [Statistical methods in hydrology]. Pod red. Alekseeva G.A. L.: Gidrometeorologicheskoe izdatel’stvo. 1970. 271 p. (in Russian).

Tuzhilkin V.S., Kosarev A.N., Arhipkin V.S., Nikonova R.E. Mnogoletnjaja izmenchivost’ gidrologicheskogo rezhima Kaspijskogo morja v svjazi s variacijami klimata. [Long-term variability of the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea due to climate variations]. // Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. serija 5: geografija No 2. 2011. p. 62-71. (in Russian).

Frolov A.V. Osobennosti mehanizma mnogoletnih kolebanij urovnja Kaspijskogo morja. [Features of the mechanism of long-term fluctuations in the level of the Caspian Sea]. // Uchenye zapiski Rossijskogo gosudarstvennogo gidrometeorologicheskogo universiteta. No 55. 2019. p. 120-128. (in Russian).

Jagotincev V.N., Postavik P.V. Uroven’ Kaspijskogo morja v proshlom i nastojashhem. [The level of the Caspian Sea in the past and present]. // Trudy geograficheskogo obshhestva Respubliki Dagestan. No 41. 2013. p. 26-40

Buber, A., Bolgov, M., Buber, V. (2023). Statistical and Water Management Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in the Reservoir Basin of the Volga–Kama Cascade on the Environmental Safety of the Lower Volga Ecosystem. Applied Sciences (Switzerland), 13(8), 4768

Koriche, S.A., Singarayer, J.S., Cloke, H.L., …Wickert, A.D., Yanina, T.A. (2022). What are the drivers of Caspian Sea level variation during the late Quaternary? Quaternary Science Reviews 283, 107457, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107457

Kholoptsev, A.V., Naurozbayeva, Zh.K. (2022). The Northern Caspian Levels and Its Ice Regime Changing During Current Climate Warming. In: Karev, V.I. (eds) Physical and Mathematical Modeling of Earth and Environment Processes. Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-99504-1_15 1st ed. 2022. 337 p. (133-146 p). https:// link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-99504-1

Maznev, S.V., Ogorodov, S.A., Vergun, A.P. (2021). Tyuleniy Archipelago of the Northern Caspian: A testing ground for the study of ice-gouging processes. Proceedings of the International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions, POAC

Ogorodov S. A., Magaeva A.A., Maznev S.V., Yaitskaya N.A., Vernyayev Sergey, Sigitov Anton, Kadranov Y. (2020)y. Ice Features Of The Northern Caspian Under Sea Level Fluctuations And Ice Coverage Variations. Geography, Environment, Sustainability, Т 13, № 3, с. 129-138 https://doi. org/10.24057/2071-9388-2020-7790

Zhanar Naurozbayeva, Aziza Baubekova, Anastasia Kvasha, Vladimir Lobanov, Bjorn Kløve & Ali Torabi Haghighi (2023) Determining factors for changes in the ice regime of the Caspian Sea, International Journal of Water ResourcesDevelopment, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2023.2231099, https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/07900627.2023.2231099?tab=permissions&scroll=top&role=tab

Caspian Sea, general atmospheric circulation, ice period characteristic dates, ice regime, precipitation, sea level

Leave a Reply