Evaluating the impacts of climate change projections on streamflow in the Panjshir watershed

Rohullah Mayar ^a,b*, Mohammad Assem Mayar ^c, Mohammad Hamid Omar ^a

^a Kabul Polytechnic University, Karte Mamourin, District 5, Kabul, 1001, Afghanistan
^b Directorate of Agriculture and Livestock Adaptation to Climate Impacts, Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock, Jamal Mina, Kart-e-Sakhi, District 3, Kabul, 1001, Afghanistan
^c Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Eberswalder Str. 84, Müncheberg, 15374, Germany

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-2/1-25.eng

*e-mail: rohullah_mayar@yahoo.com

Mohammad Assem Mayar: assem.mayar@yahoo.com; Mohammad Hamid Omar: m.hamidomar@kpu.edu.af

Thematic cluster: Climate & Environment

Type of paper: Research paper

July 11, 2025

Abstract

Climate change represents a critical global concern affecting water resources both quantitatively and temporally. Afghanistan ranks among the top ten most vulnerable countries to climate change, with its water supply heavily reliant on snowmelt. Situated on the southern slopes of the central Hindu Kush Mountains, the Panjshir Basin contributes a significant amount of water to the Kabul River. This study has utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Model to assess the effects of climate change on streamflow within the relatively pristine target watershed. Initially, the recently (2008-2023) collected flow data were compared against the baseline period (1960-1980) revealing declines up to 10.77%. Subsequently, the SWAT model underwent configuration, calibration and validation using the observed data, and was then applied to project future streamflow under two climate scenarios – SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 – across three future periods: near-future (2031-2050), future (2051-2070), and far-future (2071-2100). The study’s outputs point to a decreased streamflow under both scenarios – specifically 11.95% and 20.5% during the near-future interval, as well as 22.10% and 28.75% during the far-future interval, respectively, against the baseline. Moreover, the model shows a shift in peak discharge from June to April due to earlier snowmelt, which poses risks to agricultural water availability. Similar impacts are expected in nearby catchments in Afghanistan and high-altitude areas of the Hindu Kush-Himalayan system. The study’s findings underscore the urgency of adaptive water management strategies, including developing water storage, improving irrigation efficiency, and employing climate-resilient agricultural practices to mitigate potential climate change impacts.

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Mayar, R., Mayar, M., Omar, M. (2025). Evaluating the impacts of climate change projections on streamflow in the Panjshir watershed. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 11(2), 1–25. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-2/1-25.eng

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