Spatiotemporal Distribution Analysis of Rainfall in the Harirud-Murghab River Basin, Afghanistan

Abdul Basit Da’ie ^a*, Hedayatullah Arian ^a, Ahmad Shahir Popalzai ^b, Homayoun Khoshnod ^c

^a Kabul University, Jamalmina, 3rd District, Kabul, 100310, Afghanistan
^b Meteorology Directorate, Ministry of Transport and Aviation, Kabul International Airport, Meteorological Street, 10th District, Kabul, 101012, Afghanistan
^c General Water Resources Department, Ministry of Energy and Water, Darulaman Road, Senatoriam, 6th District, Kabul, 100719, Afghanistan

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-2/26-45.eng

*e-mail: metbasit@gmail.com

Hedayatullah Arian: hedayatullaharian@gmail.com; Ahmad Shahir Popalzai: khanpopalzai019@gmail.com; Homayoun Khoshnod: homayounkhohsnod14@gmail.com

Thematic cluster: Climate & Environment

Type of paper: Research paper

July 24, 2025

Abstract

The execution of hydrological, climatological, agricultural, and development projects fre-quently encounters a key challenge: missing rainfall data at specific locations. This limita-tion can be addressed using various spatial interpolation techniques, including Spline, In-verse Distance Weighted (IDW), Kriging, and the widely used Thiessen Polygon method. The primary objectives of this study were: 1) to estimate the annual mean precipitation in the Harirud-Murghab River Basin (HMRB) in Afghanistan for the period 1979–2023; and 2) to evaluate and compare the accuracy of different spatial interpolation and average precipi-tation estimation methods in the region. For this purpose, 45 years of precipitation data from 11 hydrometeorological stations within the basin were employed. The methods tested in-cluded the Arithmetic Mean, Thiessen Polygons, and Isohyetal Lines generated through Kriging, IDW, and Spline techniques. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was used to evaluate the performance of each method. The results revealed that Kriging produced the highest accuracy and the lowest error (RMSE = 18.74 mm), making it the most suitable method for estimating spatially averaged precipitation in the HMRB. The IDW, Thiessen Polygon, and Spline methods followed with RMSE values of 19.07, 19.21, and 19.56 mm, respectively. Although the differences in mean values were not statistically significant, the Kriging-based isohyetal map produced the most accurate estimate of 240.75 mm. Therefore, Kriging is recommended as the preferred technique for estimating both rainfall and solid precipitation (snow) in this basin. The study’s findings are expected to support climate anal-ysis, water resource modeling, and flood forecasting in the region.

Available in English

Download the article (eng)

For citation:

Da’ie, A., Arian, H., Popalzai, A., Khoshnod, H. (2025). Spatiotemporal distribution analysis of rainfall in the Harirud-Murghab River Basin, Afghanistan. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 11(2), 26–45. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2025-R1.v11-2/26-45.eng

References

Abasizadah, M. (2024). Engineering hydrology (pp. 34–35). Islamic Freedom (Azad) University.

Ahrens, C. D., & Henson, R. (2019). Meteorology today. Cengage Learning.

Alizadeh, A. (2010). Rain and atmospheric precipitances. In Principle of applied hydrology (p. 192). Imam Reza University.

Anwari, S. (2022). Afghanistan’s international rivers and the importance of their region. International Journal of Geography, Geology and Environment, 4(1), 36–43. Retrieved July 12, 2025, from https://www.geojournal.net/uploads/archives/3-1-10-332.pdf

Arez, G. J. (1981). Natural geography of Afghanistan. Kabul University.

Arian, M. A. (2021). Assessment of precipitation estimation methods accuracy in Kokcha River Basin (Unpublished undergraduate monograph). Department of Hydrometeorology, Kabul University.

Arianti, I., Soemarno, H. A. W., Hasyim, A. W., & Sulistyono, R. (2018). Rainfall estimation by using Thiessen polygons, inverse distance weighted, spline, and kriging methods: A case study in Pontianak, West Kalimantan. International Journal of Education and Research, 6(11), 301–310. Retrieved from https://www.ijern.com/journal/2018/November-2018/25.pdf

Azizi, F. (2022). Analysis of mean precipitation in the river basins of Afghanistan. Quarterly Magazine, Ministry of Energy and Water, 41–42.

Azizi, F. (2022). Water resources availability and status in Afghanistan. Water & Energy, (17), 18–19. Ministry of Energy and Water.

Bayraktar, H., Turalioglu, F. S., & Şen, Z. (2005). The estimation of average areal rainfall by percentage weighting polygon method in Southeastern Anatolia Region, Turkey. Atmospheric Research, 73(1– 2), 149–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2004.08.003

CAREC & USAID. (2021). River basin management plan for Lower Harirud River Basin: Afghanistan side (pp. 8–20). CAREC.

DAAD. (2014). National atlas of Afghanistan (A. Dittmann, Ed.). Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (DAAD).

Da’ie, A. B. (2021). Developing mathematical models for global solar radiation intensity estimation at Shakardara, Kabul. International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies, 4(2), 173–180. https://doi.org/10.53894/ijirss.v4i2.68

FAO. (2012). AQUASTAT country profile – Afghanistan. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Favre, R., & Kamal, G. M. (2004). Part I: Description of watersheds. In Watershed atlas of Afghanistan (p. 37). FAO and AIMS.

Galilvand, H., Zarean, H., & Movahedi, S. (2016). The reconstruction of the annual rainfall of over a century from Quercus persica tree rings in Zagros forests (Case study of Dena region). Journal of Geography and Planning, 20(55), 65–86.

General Directorate of Water Resources (GDWR). (2022). Afghanistan surface water potential assessment in the five major river basins. Ministry of Energy and Water.

Gebremichael, M., & Krajewski, W. F. (2005). Modeling distribution of temporal sampling errors in area time averaged rainfall estimates. Atmospheric Research, 73(3–4), 243–259. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2004.11.004

FAO. (2012). AQUASTAT country profile – Afghanistan. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Hairong, Z., Lijiang, L., Yanhua, L., & Wei, L. (2015). Spatial sampling strategies for the effect of interpolation accuracy. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, December, 2742–2768.

Maharjan, S. B., Joya, E., Rahimi, M. M., Azizi, F., Muzafari, K. A., Bariz, M., Bromand, M. T., Shrestha, F., Shokory, A. G., Anwari, A., Sherpa, T. C., & Bajracharya, S. R. (2021). Glaciers in Afghanistan: Status and changes from 1990 to 2015 (Technical Publication No. 784). International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development. https://doi.org/10.53055/ICIMOD.784

Maharjan, S. B., Shrestha, F., Azizi, F., Joya, E., Bajracharya, B., Bromand, M. T., & Rahimi, M. M. (2021). Monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes in Afghanistan. In B. Bajracharya, R. B. Thapa, & M. A. Matin (Eds.), Earth Observation Science and Applications for Risk Reduction and Enhanced Resilience in Hindu Kush Himalaya Region (pp. 211–230). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978- 3-030-73569-2_11

Mahmoodi, S. M. (2008). Integrated water resources management for rural development and environmental protection in Afghanistan. Journal of Developments in Sustainable Agriculture, 3(1), 9–19. https://doi.org/10.11178/jdsa.3.9

Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW). (2024). Monthly max and total precipitation (mm) recorded at automatic hydrometeorology stations [Data sheet]. Unpublished manuscript, Ministry of Energy and Water, Kabul.

Ministry of Justice, Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. (2009). Water Law: Water Resources Management Chapter — Ministry of Energy and Water responsibilities. Official Magazine of Laws. Kabul, Afghanistan.

Mohd Firdaus, N. N., & Abdul Talib, S. (2015). Spatial interpolation of monthly precipitation in Selangor, Malaysia: Comparison and evaluation of methods. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Global Trends in Academic Research (GTAR-2015) (Vol. 1, pp. 346–357). Global Illuminators. https://www.globalilluminators.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/GTAR%2014-372.pdf

Nafez, N. M. (1992). Statistical assessment of precipitation distribution at Kabul Province [Research project, Hydrometeorology Department, Kabul University]. Kabul University.

Nepal, S., Khatiwada, K. R., Pradhananga, S., Kralisch, S., Samyn, D., Bromand, M. T., Jamal, N., Dildar, M., Durrani, F., Rassouly, F., & Azizi, F. (2021). Future snow projections in a small basin of the Western Himalaya. Science of the Total Environment, 795, Article 148587. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148587

Noori, W. A. (2021). Assessment of different methods for mean precipitation estimation at Mid-Kabul River Basin. Unpublished undergraduate monograph, Department of Hydrometeorology, Kabul University.

Parks, C. (2024). Precipitation. National Geographic. Retrieved January 15, 2024, from https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/precipitation/

Pathak, S. R., Shrestha Pradhan, N., Guragai, S., Baksi, B., Azizi, F., & Shrestha, A. B. (2022). Complexities and opportunities of multi-stakeholder partnerships: A case study of water resource management in Afghanistan. Sustainability, 14(23), 15496. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142315496

Roland, S. (2016). Practical meteorology: An algebra-based survey of atmospheric science (1st ed.). The University of British Columbia. http://www.eos.ubc.ca/books/Practical_Meteorology/

Sheau Tieh, N., Liew, J., Tangang, F., Chung, X. J., & Salimun, E. (2022). Projected mean and extreme precipitation based on bias corrected simulation outputs of CORDEX Southeast Asia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 37, Article 100484. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100484

Shrestha, A. B., Shukla, D., Pradhan, N. S., Dhungana, S., Azizi, F., Memon, N., Mohtadullah, K., Lotia, H., Ali, A., Molden, D., & Daming, H. (2021). Developing a science-based policy network over the Upper Indus Basin. Science of the Total Environment, 784, 147067. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. scitotenv.2021.147067

Sluiter, R. (2009). Interpolation methods for climate data: Literature review (KNMI Intern. Rep. IR 2009 04). Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

Spiegel, M. R., Lipschutz, S., & Liu, J. (2009). Mathematical handbook of formulas and tables (3rd ed.). McGraw-Hill. https://doi.org/10.1036/0071548556

Tabios III, G. Q., & Salas, J. D. (1985). A comparative analysis of techniques for spatial interpolation of precipitation. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 21(3), 365–380. https:// doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1985.tb00147.x

Thomas, V., Azizi, M. A., & Behzad, K. (2016). Developing transboundary water resources: What perspectives for cooperation between Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan? (AREU Publication Code 1607E). Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit. Retrieved July 12, 2025, from Library of Congress: https://www.loc.gov/item/2017332077/

Viessman Jr., W., & Lewis, G. L. (1996). Introduction to hydrology (4th ed.). HarperCollins.

Wahed, A., & Ghafari, A. H. (1982). Precipitation regime of the Republic of Afghanistan. Institute of Hydrometeorology, Ministry of Transport and Tourism.

Yahya, D., Abas, N., Al Bakri, M. H., Al Baldawi, A., & Al-Furaiji, M. (2023). Accuracy assessment of spatial interpolation methods using ArcGIS. E3S Web of Conferences, 464, Article 09005, 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202346409005