Experts’ perceptions of water security in Central Asia: results from a Delphi study

Aliya Assubayeva

Graduate School of Public Policy, Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan, 010000, Nur-Sultan, Kabanbay Batyr Ave., 53.

E-mail: aliya.assubayeva@nu.edu.kz

February 25, 2021

https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2021-R1.v7-1/50-69.eng

Research paper

Abstract

Water security in Central Asia has been discussed by researchers and international organizations using hydrological, engineering, and modeling approaches. Various frameworks conceptualize water security through technical, socio-economic, and environmental aspects. This study attempts to identify the current trends of perceptions of experts about water security in Central Asian countries and Afghanistan as assessed through different regional and international experts with relevant knowledge and experience. The experts originate from diverse professional backgrounds like ministries, NGOs, international organizations, research, and academic institutes. The analysis was conducted through the Delphi approach, which has been widely used to identify experts’ views by reaching a consensus on various subjects. The Delphi method assisted in the elicitation of experts’ opinions about different water security dimensions in the overall region and each Central Asia country that have been suggested from the relevant literature. The two-round questionnaire was developed to infer the experts’ views (round 1) on water security in Central Asia and then identify the agreement’s rate with the initial findings (round 2). The results have shown that, while the relevant scientific literature gives priority to environmental factors, the experts emphasize water security’s economic aspects. Experts suggested including transboundary challenges, legislative and institutional weaknesses in assessing water security in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Respondents highlighted the low effectiveness or ineffectiveness of the current institutions and mechanisms that dealt with water security-related issues in Central Asia and suggested strengthening water governance in the region.

---

Download the article (eng)

How to cite: Assubayeva, A. (2021). Experts ’ Perceptions of Water Security in Central Asia: results from a Delphi study. Central Asian Journal of Water Research 7(1), 50–69. https://doi.org/10.29258/CAJWR/2021-R1.v7-1/50-69.eng

References

Abdullaev, I., & Rakhmatullaev, S. (2016). Setting up the agenda for water reforms in Central Asia : Does the nexus approach help ? Environmental Earth Sciences, 75, p. 870. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-016-5409-8

ADB, (2013). Asian Water Development Outlook 2013: Measuring Water Security in Asia and Pacific. Asian Development Bank. The Philippines. Available at: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/30190/asian-water-development-outlook-2013.pdf

ADB, (2016). Asian Water Development Outlook 2016: Highlights and Main Messages.  Asian Development Bank, Philippines. Available at: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/189411/awdo-2016.pdf

ADB, (2020). Asian Water Development Outlook 2020: Advancing Water Security across Asia and the Pacific. Asian Development Bank, Philippines. Available at: https://www.adb.org/publications/asian-water-development-outlook-2020

Avella, J. R. (2016). Delphi panels: Research design, procedures, advantages, and challenges. International Journal of Doctoral Studies, 11. https://doi.org/10.28945/3561

Baubekova, A., & Kvasha, A. (2019). Implementing water-related sustainable development goals. In The Aral Sea Basin: Water for Sustainable Development in Central Asia, Taylor and Francis, pp. 197–221. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429436475

Belton, I., MacDonald, A., Wright, G., & Hamlin, I. (2019). Improving the practical application of the Delphi method in group-based judgment: a six-step prescription for a well-founded and defensible process. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 147, 72-82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.07.002

Bishop, D. V., Snowling, M. J., Thompson, P. A., Greenhalgh, T., & Catalise Consortium. (2016). CATALISE: A multinational and multidisciplinary Delphi consensus study. Identifying language impairments in children. PLOS one, 11(7), e0158753. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158753

Bonaccorsi, A., Apreda, R., & Fantoni, G. (2020). Expert biases in technology foresight. Why they are a problem and how to mitigate them. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119855

Calabor, M. S., Mora, A., & Moya, S. (2019). The future of “serious games” in accounting education: A Delphi study. Journal of Accounting Education, 46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaccedu.2018.12.004

Chan, S. (2010). Pyrrhic victory in the “tournament of shadows”: Central Asia’s quest for water security (1991-2009).  Asian Security, 6(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/14799851003756584

Cook, C., & Bakker, K. (2012). Water security: Debating an emerging paradigm. Global Environmental Change, 22(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.011

Dalkey, N., & Helmer, O. (1963). Delphi method of convergence. Management science, 3.

Day, J., & Bobeva, M. (2005). A generic toolkit for the successful management of delphi studies. Electronic Journal of Business Research Methods, 3(2), pp. 103–116.

Gain, A. K., Giupponi, C., & Wada, Y. (2016). Measuring global water security towards sustainable development goals. Environmental Research Letters, 11(12), 124015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124015.

Granit, J., Jägerskog, A., Lindström, A., Björklund, G., Bullock, A., Löfgren, R., … & Pettigrew, S. (2012). Regional options for addressing the water, energy and food nexus in Central Asia and the Aral Sea Basin. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 28(3), 419-432. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2012.684307 

GWP, (2000).  Towards water security: Framework for Action. Global Water Partnership. Available at: https://www.gwp.org/globalassets/global/toolbox/references/towards-water-security.-a-framework-for-action.-executive-summary-gwp-2000.pdf.

Hsu, C. C. (2007). The Delphi Technique: Making Sense of Consensus – Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation. Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 12(10).Available at: https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1177&context=pare

Jalilov, S. M., Keskinen, M., Varis, O., Amer, S., & Ward, F. A. (2016). Managing the water–energy–food nexus: Gains and losses from new water development in Amu Darya River Basin. Journal of Hydrology, 539, 648-661. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.05.071

Khaydarov, M., & Gerlitz, L. (2019). Climate variability and change over Uzbekistan – an analysis based on high resolution CHELSA data. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 5(2), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.29258/cajwr/2019-r1.v5-2/1-19.eng

Lee, G., Jun, K. S., & Chung, E. S. (2013). Integrated multi-criteria flood vulnerability approach using fuzzy TOPSIS and Delphi technique.  Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 13(5). https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1293-2013.

Markmann, C., Spickermann, A., von der Gracht, H. A., & Brem, A. (2020). Improving the question formulation in Delphi‐like surveys: Analysis of the effects of abstract language and amount of information on response behavior. Futures & Foresight Science, e56. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.56

Martínez-Paz, J., Almansa, C., Casasnovas, V., & Colino, J. (2016). Pooling expert opinion on environmental discounting: an international Delphi survey. Conservation and Society, 14(3), 243-253. https://doi.org/10.4103/0972-4923.191162

Normand, S. L. T., McNeil, B. J., Peterson, L. E., & Palmer, R. H. (1998). Eliciting expert opinion using the Delphi technique: identifying performance indicators for cardiovascular disease. International journal for quality in health care, 10(3), 247-260. https://doi.org/10.1093/intqhc/10.3.247

OECD, (2013). Water Security for Better Lives. OECD Studi. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264202405-en.

Okoli, C., & Pawlowski, S. D. (2004). The Delphi method as a research tool: An example, design considerations and applications. Information and Management, 42(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.im.2003.11.002

Stucki, V., & Sojamo, S. (2012). Nouns and Numbers of the Water – Energy – Security Nexus in Central Asia. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 28(3), pp. 399–418. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2012.684304

Van Dijk, M. P. (2019). The importance of economics and governance for the water sector in Kazakhstan, the issues and tools for better water management. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 5(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.29258/cajwr/2019-r1.v5-1/1-17.eng

UN Security, (2007). Security Council holds first-ever debate on impact of climate change on peace, security, hearing over 50 speakers. Available at: https://www.un.org/press/en/2007/sc9000.doc.htm.

Urias, E., Vogels, F., Yalcin, S., Malagrida, R., Steinhaus, N., & Zweekhorst, M. (2020). A framework for Science Shop processes: Results of a modified Delphi study. Futures, 123, 102613. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2020.102613

WB, (2020). Central Asia: Towards Water-Secure Sustainable Economies. World Bank Group, Washington, D.C. Available at: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/923041591902082151/Central-Asia-Towards-Water-Secure-Sustainable-Economies

Wegerich, K., Van Rooijen, D., Soliev, I., & Mukhamedova, N. (2015). Water security in the Syr Darya basin. Water, 7(9), 4657-4684. https://doi.org/10.3390/w7094657

Xenarios, S., Shenhav, R., Abdullaev, I., & Mastellari, A. (2018). Current and future challenges of water security in Central Asia. In: World Water Council (eds) Global Water Security. Water Resources Development and Management. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7913-9_5

Xenarios, S., Sehring, J., Assubayeva, A., Schmidt-Vogt, D., Abdullaev, I., & Araral, E. (2019). Water Security Assessments in Central Asia: Research and Policy Implications’, in Yoshino, N., Araral, E. and , and Ram, S. (eds) Water Insecurity and Sanitation in Asia. Asian Development Bank Institute, pp. 358–378. Available at: https://www.adb.org/publications/water-insecurity-and-sanitation-asia.

Xenarios, S., Assubayeva, A., Xie, L., Sehring, J., Amirkhanov, D., Sultanov, A., & Fazli, S. (2020). A bibliometric review of the water security concept in Central Asia. Environmental Research Letters, 16(1), 013001. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc717.

Yousuf, M. I. (2007). Using experts’ opinions through Delphi technique.  Practical Assessment, Research and Evaluation, 12(4).

Zakhirova, L. (2013). The International Politics of Water Security in Central Asia.  Europe-Asia Studies, 65(10), pp. 1994–2013. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2013.848647

Ziganshina, D. R. (2019). Transboundary environmental assessment in the Aral Sea basin: the interplay of international and domestic law. Central Asian Journal of Water Research (CAJWR), 4(2), 27-47.va